As per research, i am not pretty confident that nifty will touch 4000 in the coming days, i think the global uptrend this week is due to G20 submit and some changes on Banking sector regulation etc..
Reasons for Market uptrend for last 2 weeks
1. Leaders in the G20 submit have committed more than 1 trillion USD.
2. Timoth Githener is getting more support from wallstreet and the perception on his economic plan has positively changed.
3. Obama's government has unveiled clear cut plans for Afg-Pak plan with Iraq's exit strategy.
4. Sarkozy and Angela merkel have their own plans of economic reforms which for EU which looks like better plan than US, so there is a multi level approach from all the G8 countries to fix the economic problem which will ease the burden and dependency on US
5.Interest-rate cut in Europe, tweaks to accounting standards in the United States and hopes that a global economic summit would yield results.
6.The Labor Department said that initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 669,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 657,000 and Investors are bracing for a bleak report when the government announces the March unemployment rate on Friday
7. Obama's reset plan to defuse tensions between Russia and Iran.
8. Benjamin Netayanu's open statement that he will work for Arab peace process.
9. Reliance kicks off from KG basin
10. NDA gaining momentum on the pre poll election drama and investors are positive that NDA will form the next government Other than these facts i don't find any specifc reason for market uptrends.
Reasons for Market downtrend
1. GM and Chrysler are the sinking boats and anytime they will file for Bankruptcy
2. N.Korea's missile launch is inevitable between Apr4- Apr8 and either Japan or US will intercept the missile, which may lead to further retaliation from N.Korea against Japan.
3. Obama's is being isolated on G20 submit and held a separate press conference for foreign press where as other G20 leaders held a separate press conference which shows there is no unified approach between G20 countries
4.Stratfor has said that a 26/11 style attack in India before or during elections is inevitable and India is preparing to brace this attack.
5.High possibility for a hung parliament may also lead to instability on economic policies.
6. Indian companies will start to lay off jobs after elections.
7.No clear cut plan on Sattyam saga till now.
No comments:
Post a Comment